Simulation: Earth

[Genesis 1:26-28, mixture of NIV and New English translations]

But the Word of God cannot return to Him void and powerless. After about six millenia (or maybe a few more?), we (collectively) have fulfiled His command.

The Earth is our garden. Wilderness is an endangered environment. So, how aesthetically and effectively are we gardening the Earth?

AIDS: Bane of blood transfusions, marital infidelity, and fidelity to those who do not reciprocate

The latency time in chimpanzees (from an analog virus, SIV) appears to be longer than their natural lifespan. This has been speculated (Sept. 2002) to be due to adaptation to a massive pandemic.

[CNN: Sept. 24, 2002] Chimpanzees are about 95%-98.5% genetically identical to humans, with somewhat more diversity in most loci. A number of loci related to the immune system are very low-variation in chimpanzees, however. The same speculation suggests a 90% kill rate at conventional-paradigm 2 million years ago.

Current optimal therapies [in First-World nations with phenomenal resources] can near-totally suppress HIV, but do not permanently eradicate the virus from behind the blood-brain barrier, or from semen. Much research is being devoted to creating an AIDS vaccine. AIDS is incapable of long-term survival outside of the body. In particular, mosquitos seem to digest the virus before they can spread it. [If only they'd do that for malaria....]

Viability of Conventional Paradigm: For the actual infection mode, symptoms, etc.: excellent. I am not aware of any vaguely credible alternative hypotheses...regardless of the conventional paradigm being a personal insult to South Africa's Mbeki.

The theoretical existence of an AIDS vaccine is problematic, the potential vaccine heading into Phase III trials (Dec. 2000?) notwithstanding. Test trials of gene knockout SIV vaccines indicate that removing the three most plausible genes (out of 9) results in a fully infectious virus. Currently, the most promising technique may be a vaccine modeled after a possibly-effective Ebola vaccine: immunization to RNA/DNA.

[AllAfrica, November 30 2001]: Seventeen years of effort in AIDS vaccine development has produced seventy-seven candidates, of which only two have attained final clinical trials. The first generation of attempts targeted the AIDS outer subunit gp120. One of these is entering phase III trials: a transgenic canary pox virus (laced with gp120), that actually produces measurable cellular immunity.

CJK alias "Mad Cow" disease: Natural law enforces the Torah on agriculture

Molecular-biological techniques have isolated the mechanism as an autocatalytic misfolding of a probable copper-receptor protein in the endoplasmic reticulum of neurons. The misfolded protein is functionally a prion [which is outside of the conventional paradigm], that is not destroyed by conventional cooking, degraded by the Ph of the stomach, or degraded by protease enyzmes. The misfolded protein can induce normal-form protein to misfold to its configuration. If the misfolded protein completely blocks the neuron's endoplasmic reticulum, the victimized cell soon entirely fills its entire endoplasmic reticulum, and dies from lack of protein synthesis. B-lymphocytes try to remove the misfolded protein, and are somewhat successful (concentrating it in the tonsils), but are eventually overwhelmed.

Molecular-biological techniques have also identified that the misfolded protein can induce its autocatalytic misfolding reaction across species (it is quite possible for avians to pick it up from afflicted mammalian flesh, and vice-versa. Chickens seem to be highly resistant.) Note that one requirement for kosher meat is that the animals in question (cows, etc.) never have eaten meat themselves....so kosher meat is automatically free of CJK.

In humans, mutant forms of the protein are resistant to CJK autocatalytic folding. Many mutant forms, however, are reported by OMIM™ as causing significant problems intrinsically. The mildest one in OMIM™ suggests some sort of genetic adaptation in a small town in 15th/16th-century Italy.

The corresponding disease in sheep is scrapie. It appears [Xinhua, July 17 2001] that the EU has instituted a fairly aggressive testing paradigm (as of early 2000) that prohibits brain and bone marrow in food preparations. [Whether the spinal cord is included is unclear...important, since the prions do propagate there. This is relevant for subclinical (physically undetectable) instances in animals. Clinical instances are supposed to be incinerated. Fortunately, mechanically extracted beef and pork is required (in the U.S.) to be labeled as such. Turkey and chicken are not so privileged, although it seems many manufacturers do so anyway.]

Viability of Conventional Paradigm: Other than the conventional paradigm's inability to handle the pathogenesis method (prion), the conventional paradigm works excellently.

Atmospheric re-engineering: "Thermal inertia" manipulations (alias "greenhouse effect") and ozone equilibria constant tampering ("ozone hole")

Based on news stories clipped by MyCNN and NOAA PR statements on TV programming, three phase shifts in the Earth's climate, plausibly induced by the above carbon dioxide boost, have already occurred.

• [MyCNN]: The first was between 1974 and 1975; it was detected at the Galapagos Islands, and its primary visible effect was to manipulate the concentration of iron in the sea water there. This affects the oceanic biosphere, because iron is the limiting factor on plankton biomass.
• [MyCNN]: The University of Colorado's Professor William Gray, a hurricane forecasting specialist, found that a phase shift invalidated his predictive model for the number of hurricanes and severe hurricanes in the Atlantic for 1998 compared to prior years. [He defines his model to be inaccurate if either is off by even one.] It appeared that he was able to recalibrate his model for 1999.
• [NOAA]: Jan. 2000 - Mar. 2000 were, on average, the warmest such months in the weather records for the U.S.
• [MyCNN]: Recently [Oct. 2000-Nov. 2000], the United Kingdom has been approaching rainfall records set in the 1600's.

Ozone formation is mediated by UV-induced disassociation of oxygen into monoatomic oxygen, which then binds to oxygen to form ozone. This is obviously limited by the availability of UV radiation (sunlight), so some ozone thinning over the poles during their winter is to be expected. It should be noted that a sufficiently thinned ozone layer permits UV-C to reach the surface -- a highly energetic variant which most absorption-based sunscreens are not designed to stop.

However, the reports (since 1998) of thin-ozone layers over southern Chile triggering sunburn in under 5 minutes, and nearly-immediate cataract formation (days rather than years) indicate that the winter thinning over Antarctica is far more severe than at any time since the Spanish colonization/conquest of Chile in the 1600's.

Viability of Conventional Paradigm: The conventional paradigm is a clearly incomplete explanation. While all factors mentioned are theoretically relevant, popular media coverage is consistently ignoring other relevant factors.

First of all, it is plausible that (as a species) we have stopped an ice age in its tracks. Climate records suggest that an ice age was attempting to start circa 1500, but was stalled by the side effects of the Renaissance and throughly shut down by the Industrial Revolution.

Second, the carbon dioxide augmentation is affecting the ozone layer situation in at least two ways:

• At least one U.S. NASA computer simulation [MyCNN, 1999 or 2000] has predicted that this should decrease mesosphere temperatures -- and strengthen the "polar vortex", preventing mixing of ozone-depleted air over the poles with UV-exposed air from more temperate latitudes. This effect (which is qualitatively predictable by analogizing relative differences of the winter versus summer temperature behavior at those altitudes) would tend to amplify the natural ozone-reduction during winter, even without chemical manipulations.
• This factor may not be measurable; it's an interesting exercise in inorganic chemistry, though. Recall that at a given temperature and pressure, a given number of molecules of air will occupy about the same volume. The ozone-oxygen conversion chemical system results in UV radiation reducing the molecule count in the ozone layer (each conversion of 3 oxygen molecules to 2 ozone molecules reduces the molecule count by 1), and natural decay+chemical assistance resulting in the increase of molecule count in the ozone layer (2 ozone molecules to 3 oxygen molecules increases the molecule count by 1). This happens slowly enough that local pressure is not significantly affected: the molecule shortfall/oversupply is (almost) immediately corrected by diffusion. This also means that any serious manipulation of oxygen demand at the Earth's surface (over months or years) could create side-effects at the ozone layer. Namely, Le Chatlier's principle suggests that to the extent the biosphere does not compensate for oxygen semi-permanently binding out of the atmosphere, the ozone layer should thin slightly in response. In reverse, a sustained release of oxygen into the atmosphere should cause the ozone layer to thicken slightly in response.

Fourth, climate changes are generally measured on the surface of the Earth. Anything that interferes with sunlight reaching the ground will shift heat from the surface of the Earth to the corresponding region of the atmosphere.

• [MSNBC] Comparing occultations of Pluto (one from 1998(?), one from late August 2002) demonstrates this. In this section of its orbit, Pluto is starting to leave its aphelion. This reduces its absolute insolation (sunlight reaching Pluto)...causing substantial condensation of Pluto's atmosphere. The net effect is that Pluto's upper atmosphere has cooled at the August 2002 occultation compared to the prior one, reducing its thickness by a factor of about five -- while Pluto's surface has actually increased in temperature. This is attributed to more sunlight reaching Pluto's surface.
• [MSNBC/CBSNews/BBC/CNN] Western India is another demonstration. At least eighty percent of the particulate matter in a diffuse cloud, three miles high, is from use of biomass fuels (wood, dung, etc.) for cooking and heat. Unfortunately, physics does not give a break for the renewable energy origin of this cloud: it also absorbs ten percent of the sunlight that would otherwise reach the ground. Reflection into space is not measurable. [At least, this is so for 2001 and 2002. In the absence of corrective action, it's going to be even more efficient in the immediate future.] This shift of solar heating (air instead of ground) has disrupted the monsoon rains in Western India in both 2001 and 2002, causing massive drought and heat waves.

Return to Iskandria, or the main page